The 2018 NFL Draft is just around the corner, so naturally, it’s time for another mock draft. It’s hard to say whether things are getting any clearer, but one thing is for sure- there will be a lot of opinions and moves to consider over the next couple of weeks. For now, here’s my best guess at what’s to come in Dallas:
- Browns- Sam Darnold: Simply put, the Browns are now in a situation where they have to take a QB first, as tempted as they may have been to take Barkley first overall. So why Darnold? He has one of the higher ceilings of the QBs, and he has one of the higher floors as well. He is probably the conservative pick, but that may be the right pick for the Browns to make. All the other QBs offer too much risk for a Browns organization that has whiffed too often when drafting QBs. If I rate the QBs on various attributes and intangibles, in addition to their performance histories, Darnold always comes out on top. Darnold can sit for a year, which is what he probably needs, and learn the offense while Tyrod Taylor runs it, before potentially taking over in 2019. And here’s the sad truth- if he ends up being a bust, at least it’s the Browns can still justify the pick. If they were to select Allen, Jackson, or Mayfield and their pick ended up a bust, everyone will say “I told you so”. With Darnold, there will be less of that. (This is seriously a consideration for the Browns at this point, as a bust here at QB could proive to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for an organization that’s really making all the right moves to turn things around).
- Giants- Saquon Barkley: The determining factor in why I think the Giants take Barkley over a QB is because I think the Giants are still in “win now” mode, whether you think they should or shouldn’t be. Drafting a QB means a rebuild is coming. Drafting Barkley means the Giants believe they can win the NFC East, or at least get into the playoffs, and over the last decade or two, they’ve been scary when they do sneak into the post-season. Barkley gives them the running game they need and will open things up for Manning and OBJ. I also don’t know that the organization loves any of the QBs in this draft enough to start an arguably premature reload centered around one of them. Barkely fits in nicely with a proud and well-revered Giants organization, and he will provide little of the drama that OBJ brings on a weekly basis.
- Jets- Baker Mayfield: There is a part of me that thinks the Jets will take Rosen here. Another that thinks they will take Allen. But in the end, I think they go with Mayfield. I believe the Jets have historically become enamored by the “other” stuff, and that is the case here. Rosen can’t be a favorite of Jets owner Woody Johnson: on top of Rosen’s well-covered liberal political views, his father has been an outspoken critic of the company upon which the owner’s wealth is built. And he just seems to be rubbing everyone the wrong way right now. Allen is too big a project, and I don’t think the Jets believe they need to bet on a player with Allen’s risky upside to keep things moving in a positive direction. I believe they take Mayfield, impressed with his accuracy and enamored by his leadership and “chip on the shoulder” attitude. It’s a huge gamble this early, but I just get the feeling we have “Broadway Baker” on the way. Only time will tell if this gamble pays off. At least the fan base will be excited. Reminds me of another QB that excited fan bases a couple years ago that Mayfeield has been (unfairly) compared to.
- Browns- Minkah Fitzpatrick: This is where things get really interesting. The Browns have options here: they can take either of the two best defensive players in the country or trade back and acquire more assets in this draft (perhaps from the Bills). Chubb seems to impress every team he meets with, and I’m sure the idea of pairing him with Myles Garrett makes DC Gregg Williams drool. A trade with the Bills would likely get the Browns picks 12 and 22, and possibly another pick, and allow them to continue to build a talented, young nucleus. At 12 or 22, they could potentially get a solid DB or EDGE rusher and also get one of the best RBs in the class. But the Browns have early second-round picks and could likely still get one of the best RBs in the draft with that pick. Fitzpatrick, who addresses a huge need for the Browns in the secondary (at Safety or CB), is just too good to pass up here. The Browns do the right thing and get the best player on the board that addresses a major need.
- Broncos- Josh Allen: We all know Case Keenum is not the long-term answer in Denver. The Broncos are in the market for a QB, and I think if Rosen or Allen is available here, they will gladly take either one, as tempted as they may be to take a top defensive player or OG Quenton Nelson. So why Allen over Rosen? Because of John Elway. Allen has the athleticism, size, and arm strength that reminds me of the greatest QB in Denver’s history…and of course that same QB is now calling the shots for the Broncos. I would imagine Elway sees in Allen a potential star that he can mentor and who can become the QB of the future in Denver. Case Keenum knows his future has an expiration date already, and while job A for him will be making the Broncos as competitive as possible next season, he also seems self-aware enough that he will accept that job B for him will be helping Allen develop into a future starter. The Broncos may get trade offers, but I think they stick with their pick and take Allen.
- Bills (via trade with Colts)- Josh Rosen: If the Bills can’t get a trade done with the Browns to move ahead of the Broncos, I think they’ll make sure they succeed in getting a deal done to move ahead of the Dolphins in order to draft Rosen. I don’t know if Rosen is the team’s first choice, but he may be the best remaining choice for them at this point in the draft. The Bills are a playoff-caliber team, let’s keep in mind, and Rosen is the most “pro-ready” QB in the draft according to most experts. Yes, the Bills just signed AJ McCarron, but there are still a lot of questions surrounding his ability to be an impact starter, and not many believe the Bills signed him with visions of him as the long-term starter in Buffalo. If things go awry early on for McCarron in Buffalo, Rosen will be the QB from this class most capable of taking over and helping the Bills contend for a Wild Card spot. Rosen may not seem a great fit for the blue-collar Buffalo market (or Bills Mafia), and I don’t know that the SoCal kid will love playing in the Buffalo weather, but the Bills need a QB, so they need to take this chance. If the Colts hold onto this pick, I think they take Chubb, but I think the prospect of picking at both 12 and 22 is too much for a team with so many needs to pass up.
- Bucs- Bradley Chubb: This is a tough call, as the Bucs have a pending need at CB with Brent Grimes signed to a one-year deal. While they did just get Jason Paul-Pierre from the Giants to solidify the pass rush, they could use some depth at DE. With Chubb and Denzel Ward both remaining on the board, the Bucs have great options at both positions. Of course, there is always a chance that they feel they can get through the next season without picking a DE or CB in this draft, in which case they may select a punishing Safety to anchor the secondary for years to come, and that would be Derwin James. I think they go with Chubb, considering he is probably the best player available, but I have a sneaky suspicion they may take James, a college teammate of Jameis Winston. If Fitzpatrick is here, they definitely take him.
- Bears- Quenton Nelson: Another tough call here between Denzel Ward and a player that meets a significant need for the team picking. The Bears would benefit from the addition of Ward, but Nelson is considered a potential long-time All-Pro that slots in nicely for the Bears. Not to mention, Nelson would help protect the organization’s most important asset, Trubisky, and can help to open up a very good two-headed running game. The Bears have an offensive-minded coach who has worked this off-season to improve the team’s prospects on that side of the ball, so I think they will continue building in that direction. It doesn’t hurt that Nelson is a product of nearby Notre Dame. It may not be a sexy pick, but it’s a great pick.
- Niners- Tremaine Edmunds: Yet again, this pick comes down to Ward and another player, and yet again, I think the other player ends up being the pick. The Niners need help in the rush game, and Edmunds will absolutely provide that. He’s arguably the best LB in the draft, and it helps his cause that the Niners signed Richard Sherman and there is no WR in the draft worthy of such a high pick. Roquan Smith is a tempting option here for the Niners given Reuben Foster’s concerning off-season, but Foster remains on the team for now…and that makes the pass rush the main focus. Edmunds is a beast already and has tremendous upside.
- Raiders- Roquan Smith: The Raiders will definitely draft a defensive player, but whether that player is a CB, a Safety, or a LB is anyone’s guess. If Gruden wasn’t making the calls in Oakland now, I think the Raiders might take Derwin James or Denzel Ward, but I think Gruden wants Smith, an old-school defensive captain-type capable of doing his job on every down and making the big plays when they are needed, a la Derrick Brooks. With Khalil Mack’s future in limbo, Gruden also needs to shore up the second line of the defense. Smith is the best ILB available, and thus he is the pick.
- Dolphins- Vita Vea: With the top four QBs off the board, the Dolphins will have to hope Ryan Tannenhill can have a healthy and productive season, and they will have to look to fill another need via this year’s draft. With Suh leaving Miami’s beaches for those of Los Angeles, the interior of the defensive line becomes a significant need. Frank Gore can’t be expected to be the RB of the future for Miami, but I can’t see the Dolphins using this pick on a RB, especially when there will still be top RBs left on the board when Miami’s next pick comes around. Vea is the best NT in this draft and the Dolphins need someone who can step in and eat up blockers on the line. Vea fits the bill.
- Colts (via trade with Bills)- Marcus Davenport: The Colts have needs all over the roster, so this becomes a question of which one they decide to prioritize. What they don’t need is much in the secondary, so Ward and James are not likely considerations here, even if they are two of the best available prospects remaining. The Colts need help in the pass rush, help at WR and RB, and help on the OL. This is not lining up to be an ideal draft year for the Colts, as the WR and OL positions are not deep this year, there are a number of question marks surrounding the top pass-rush prospects (other than Chubb), and if there is one thing we all know, it’s that impact RBs will be available in the second and third rounds. Is it realistic to think the Colts could end up making another trade (if they even can)? They could take Calvin Ridley here to give Andrew Luck another option, or perhaps Mike McGlinchey to help protect Luck, but I don’t think they can continue to expect their talented secondary players to cover receivers all day long; they need to help those guys out by applying some pressure to opposing QBs. Davenport may be a little bit of a risk, given where he played his college ball, but he does have great potential.
- Washington- Denzel Ward: There are a few potential storylines here I love. First is Washington addressing its need for a NT by selecting Da’Ron Payne out of Alabama and pairing him next to last year’s pick from Alabama, Jonathan Allen. Second, I love the idea of Washington drafting Derwin James, a player in the mold of the late Sean Taylor. But I don’t think either of these storylines will play out. Instead, I believe Washington will draft the best player on the board, Denzel Ward, and slot him in across from Josh Norman. Washington will consider itself lucky if Ward is available at this point, and I don’t think they’ll pass on him if he is.
- Packers- Mike Hughes: To appreciate just how good Aaron Rodgers is, you just need to list all the needs the Packers have to address: WR, OT, CB, OLB, and ILB. The Packers could draft just about anyone here: McGlinchey, a CB such as Josh Jackson or Mike Hughes, an OLB like Harold Landry, or even Calvin Ridley. In the end, I think the Packers tend to take the (unfair) approach that Rodgers will always “manage to find a way with woever is on the field”, so I think they will take someone on the defensive end of the ball. If the Packers hadn’t traded Damarious Randall to the Browns, I would have slotted them to pick Harold Landry here, but given that transaction, I think they have too big a need at CB to pass on addressing it. Part of me thinks they will take Iowa’s Josh Jackson, simply because he’s an Iowa guy, but his recent struggles lead me to believe Mike Hughes, who can step in and cover receivers right away for the Pack, will be selected here.
- Cardinals- Derwin James: The question here is how much the Cardinals like Lamar Jackson. If they love him, I think they take him. If they just like him, or don’t like him at all, I think they consider selecting Derwin James now that the Honey Badger has moved on. Steve Wilks, a defensive-minded coach with a great deal of experience coaching secondaries, just might want to play it safe and take James rather than put his career on the line by gambling and taking Jackson. If this proves to be the scenario, the Cardinals may hope to take a QB in the second round such as Mason Rudolph. If they don’t manage to get a QB in this draft, they better cross their fingers that Sam Bradford stays healthy for a full season for once.