I’ve written a number of articles now on the Browns organization and what moves I think they should make in the upcoming NFL Draft. The options are endless, but one thing is for sure, and I keep coming back to it: the organization needs its franchise QB.
As we all know, there are really only five (at best) plausible options: Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Rosen. Sorry to the other QBs in the draft. While one of you may emerge as the best QB out of this draft, most experts and laypeople agree that these five represent the full list of names from which the Browns should make their selection.
Most of the time, we try to argue the merits of each QB on the list. Why SHOULD the Browns take this one or that one, or this one over that one. We talk about potential and throwing strength and accuracy and intangibles. While these are all great attributes to debate, it doesn’t seem to get us much closer to a clear and undisputed answer for the Browns. So maybe it’s time to flip the script and look at this debate from the opposite end: why SHOULDN’T the Browns take each QB. Let’s see if that provides more clarity.
- Why SHOULDN’T the Browns take Josh Allen: I like Josh Allen. He seems to carry himself well and has impressed me in interviews. He’s humble and well-spoken, and he has clearly worked hard to improve the areas of his game that needed the most work. It can easily be argued he won the post-season period with his excellent showing at the combine and his great pro day. There’s no doubt his athleticism is outstanding and his arm is powerful. It seems John Dorsey is really on a mission to change the culture in Cleveland, and Allen’s humility and work ethic might make him a great fit. Throw in the fact that Dorsey seems to like big QBs with cannon arms and you can see why the Browns might take Allen first overall. So why not? While Allen probably has the highest ceiling of any of the QBs in the draft, he also has the lowest floor. His performance last season in actual games, in particular games against top-tier competition, was less than impressive. All the improvements he made to his footwork and technique may go right out the window when he finds himself in a collapsing pocket in the NFL. Can the Browns afford to take a risk on a potentially monumental failure? If Cleveland had a long history of strong draft selections, then I would argue they could potentially take a risk on Allen, but we all know that is not the case, especially when it comes to QBs. There is just too much risk of the Browns blowing the draft here. Allen could prove to be the best QB from this class, but he could prove to be one of the worst. Additionally, while I like what I have seen from Allen as a person, I don’t know that he has the commanding presence that will be needed for a QB that will have tremendous pressure on his shoulders and will be asked to serve as the face (or one of the faces) of the franchise for years to come. The real issue here: Josh Allen feels like he has way too much potential to be terrible in the NFL. If there is any sign that may be the case, then the critics will say Cleveland was stupid to take on a “project” such as Allen, knowing the downside risk. That may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in Cleveland.
- Why SHOULDN’T the Browns take Baker Mayfield: It could easily be argued that Allen’s post-season was matched by Mayfield’s. During this past NCAA season, Mayfield was an assumed second round pick at best. There were character questions (including comparisons to Johnny Manziel), questions about the system he played his college football in, and of course, questions about his physical dimensions, most notably his height. Few seemed to believe that he could be a first round pick, and even fewer thought he could be a top-ten pick. Now, even the latter seems a plausible scenario. Mayfield has climbed up draft boards at a tremendous pace. The question here is whether that is because of anything he has done or if it’s because so many teams are desperate for QBs. Of course, it’s likely a combination of the two. Mayfield has some things in his corners that many like to point to in support of him- he has proven himself a winner, he is fiercely competitive, and he has shown great leadership at times. Even his most controversial and outlandish actions, some will write off and chalk up to a side effect of his competitive nature. Most consider him capable of playing with pressure and eyes on him (perfect for the media storm that can be New York) and a lot of people like when guys are motivated by a chip on their shoulder, which Mayfield certainly seems to be. Reports also suggest that Mayfield may be the most accurate passer in the draft class and he certainly has the best track record in this group for making big plays when they are needed most. So then why not Baker? I’ll be the first to say I don’t think the comparisons between Mayfield and Manziel are fair to Mayfield, but the reality is that they have been made on enough occasions that there is now a link between the two in the minds of many. If the Browns take Mayfield, those comparisons will only gain traction. If Mayfield does anything (throw too many INTs, get into off-field trouble, rub people the wrong way, etc.) that reminds people of Manziel, the critics will start to attack not just Mayfield (who probably wouldn’t care), but also the Browns. It would be bad enough for the Browns to repeat history by blowing a draft pick on a QB that becomes a bust, but it would be far worse for that repeat of history to feel almost identical. I can see the quotes now: “those that ignore history are doomed to repeat it”, “the definition of insane is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different outcome”, and on and on. It’s not that I don’t believe Mayfield has the ability to be an impact player in this league. I even think his “out to prove something” attitude could potentially fit in Cleveland. I just think there is, once again, too much downside here. In short, if the Browns take Mayfield and he struggles at all, the franchise will be mocked and laughed at yet again, ridiculed for making such an obvious mistake (in hindsight of course). People will ask, “How did they not see it coming?” and this could (again) be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in Cleveland.
- Why SHOULDN’T the Browns take Josh Rosen: I have said this from day one: Rosen is just too poor a fit for Cleveland for the Browns to ever take him. Rosen has a great arm, great technique, and has the confidence one might need to be a QB in Cleveland. There’s no denying any of that. But that’s where I think the case for his fit there ends. Rosen is considered the most “pro-ready” QB, but the Browns don’t necessarily need a day one QB, especially with Tyrod Taylor on the roster now. Rosen is a Southern California kid from a wealthy family, and while some of the conclusions people draw from that are unfair, they are really not the things that endear one to the Dawg Pound. Rosen doesn’t hold his tongue when it comes to politics, and given his political stances, he could end up in conflict with many of the Cleveland faithful. It doesn’t help he has been critical of the Cleveland organization and suggested he doesn’t want to play there. There are questions about his leadership (something Cleveland is in dire need of) and he has proven injury-prone so far in his career. Throw in the fact that he is believed to be difficult to coach and he may not hesitate to call out and challenge a coaching staff with a poor record over the past few seasons, and you have a potential recipe for disaster. If Rosen was a good cultural fit, I think he would probably represent one of the two best options for the Browns in this draft, but I absolutely believe Cleveland would be the worst possible landing spot for Rosen- both for him and for the Browns. It’s pretty clear Rosen is not an option for the Browns: there is a huge, predictable downside, with potential reverberations throughout the fan base and the locker room.
- Why SHOULDN’T the Browns take Lamar Jackson: I really, really hope Lamar Jackson succeeds as a QB in the NFL. I hope he proves the traditionalists that don’t like his “style” of play wrong and develops as a passer with the ability to make incredible pays when needed with his feet. I hope he proves to be more Michael Vick than RGIII. There is no denying he has other-worldly athleticism and he put up gaudy numbers in college in both the passing and running game. He has a very good arm, though he needs to improve his technique and decision-making. There is a lot he has to offer a team, but once again, there are too many questions and, as a result, too much downside with Jackson. Ignore his Wonderlic score. Even ignore his controversial decision to use his mom to represent him. The questions about Jackson have nothing to do with leadership or who he is as a person, nor do they really have to do with his performance in game situations. The questions have to do with whether or not he is elite in his accuracy, technique, and decision-making. They are similar questions to those most have about Allen, and they put Jackson in the same category. Does he have tremendous upside? Yes. Does he have the potential to be a bust of epic proportions? Absolutely. Once again, the issue here for the Browns is that the potential downside is too much for the organization to bear. If Jackson begins to struggle, the “we-told-you-so” articles and commentaries will begin. The questions of how the Browns didn’t see the potential for him to fail, since of course everyone else seemed to.
- Why SHOULDN’T the Browns take Sam Darnold: Darnold entered last season at USC with enormous expectations. He didn’t quite meet them over the course of the season, though he did show moments, particularly in clutch time, that justified the excitement that surrounded him. His arm is strong and his technique has improved during the off-season. He is well-liked by his teammates, and considered a leader in the locker room. He turned the ball over too much last season, making questionable decision and suffering breakdowns in his technique from time to time, but he had a good season overall, against tremendous competition. He aced his pro day, showed himself to be a good teammate by showing up to help teammates at their own pro days, and has said all the right things along the way, including that he would be thrilled to play for Cleveland. So why would the Browns pass on Darnold? Some worry that Darnold’s tendency for making bad decisions and turning the ball over could hurt him in Cleveland. But that’s about the only case I’ve heard against him. And that may be precisely why so many expect the Browns to take Darnold first overall. Because, while he has one of the highest upsides of the QBs in this draft class, he also seems to be the most conservative pick, with the highest ceiling, at least on paper. Darnold is a cultural fit. He is humble and works hard, and he has been complimented for his leadership skills by coaches and teammates alike. He seems to say all the right things an therefore does not promise the issues that Rosen does. His upside is not quite what Allen’s is, and you could argue it is not quite what Jackson’s is, but it is close to the level of both. On the flip side, he simply doesn’t have the downside that many believe the other two have. Darnold may struggle and turn the ball over, but Allen and Jackson are guys some would argue could be catastrophic failures. I have not heard that about Darnold. He may not exhibit the fire and passion that Mayfield does, but Darnold’s leadership has not been questioned.
So do we have more clarity now? I believe we do.
I’ve heard a lot of people say that Cleveland needs to get this pick right. But I think it’s just as true that Cleveland can’t get this wrong. And what does that mean? They need to be just as prepared to justify the selection of a bust some day as they need to be prepared to accept the praise they would likely receive for making a great pick. That is the reality of life for the Browns’ front office right now. If all other things are comparable, the deciding factor for them should be who allows them to best manage a potential “bust” pick.
We all like taking a gamble on someone like Allen, or believing in a passionate player like Mayfield. We love the idea of the perfect “prototypical” QB like Rosen, or the athletic QB like Jackson with the potential to change the game. But Cleveland can’t get enamored by any of these things. Cleveland can’t blow this. Does that mean I believe Darnold is a can’t-miss guy? Absolutely not. Every player in the draft has the potential to be a bust, especially the QBs. But the Browns need to think about something else, and that is, in a sense, damage control. That means, if the QB they pick ends up being a bust, can they at least justify their decision to select that QB. If Jackson busts, everyone will say guys like him have been busts before and the Browns were stupid to be enamored by his athleticism when there were obvious gaps in his pocket passing abilities. If Allen busts, everyone will say the Browns ignored the game tape and fell in love with his big arm and ignored the fact he seemed so likely to fail. If they take Mayfield, everyone will say Mayfield was maxed out in terms of his potential, tried to be a hero too much, and didn’t have the physical requirements to be successful at the QB position in the NFL. And then there’s Rosen. If he proves to be a bust, people will just say the Browns were stupid to take a spoiled, liberal rich kid from California that doesn’t care much about football and hates Cleveland.
But if they take Darnold, what can people say? His potential is on par with the others. His leadership is at the top of his class. He is very athletic, but a true pocket passer. He played in a pro-style offense in college against some of the best competition the college ranks offer. He has played under the watchful eyes of many, in a major media market. He always seemed to play well in clutch situations. And he says the right things and has the right attitude. He works hard and has improved his technique in the off-season. All people can say is that his tendency to turn the ball over too much in his last season should have served as a precursor to his “bustability”.
Choosing QBs in the draft is difficult. Few are “can’t-miss” guys. Almost every QB has the potential to be a bust. Every front office has to know that heading into the draft. Because of this, teams can’t just look at who has the longest list of positives. They have to think about the larger context of the organization. Who makes the most sense? Who provides the best upside while promising what I will call a “manageable” downside? Who, if they bust, won’t get you as many “I-told-you-so’s”? And this is more of a consideration for Cleveland than for any other organization.
It’s not the way anyone wants to think about the draft. We want to think about the best player, and we want a clear idea of who that is based on all of their positive attributes. When comparing QBs, particularly this year, such an approach doesn’t help clear things up. So we have to take a second step and think about the selection from the flip side, using a process of elimination in order to see who’s left standing on the draft board. If we’re lucky, that is one of the QBs that was already at or near the top of our list.
And that happens to be the case for the Browns. Using the first step, which is determining who offers the most on the plus side, probably leaves them with a short list. Let’s assume it’s Josh Allen and Sam Darnold. Maybe Mayfield or Rosen slips in. Now, by applying the second step, the process of elimination, I think they get their answer, and that’s Darnold. He offers one of the best upsides. His floor is the highest. And if he does happen to bust, at least the decision to choose him can be explained. People will say “yeah, I get why they took him” instead of “those idiots missed such obvious things”. And that matters for the Browns.
If there is one thing the Browns could have wanted out of the draft this year, it was a clear answer as to who the best QB is. I don’t know that they have that. A close second to that, however, is that the most conservative choice at QB for them would also be the best fit for them. They did get that. Now, I hope they take Darnold.
Oh yeah, but what about that Barkely kid….